EVENT LOG: X1.6 SOLAR FLARE     DATE: 11/07/2014 @ 17:26 UTC     SOURCE: Sunspot 2205
DISCUSSION:

Solar activity is once again at high levels. Region 2205 produced a strong X1.6 solar flare peaking at 17:26 UTC Friday. The event was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 602 km/s. A short lived R2 radio black occurred on the sunlit side of Earth. The flare generated a coronal mass ejection (CME) that appears to be directed to the north and east and away from Earth. Despite this, a geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for November 10th.

LOG ENTRIES:

11/08/2014 @ 15:15 UTC
A moderate G2 geomagnetic storm watch has been issued for November 10th. The watch was added as a result of the X1.6 flare and CME event from Friday. When watching the attached video courtesy of LASCO C2 and C3, you can clearly see that a bulk of plasma is traveling to the north and east and away from our planet. Despite this, sky watchers at high latitudes should remain alert. I do not personally expect G2 storm conditions to materialize, but then again, we have been surprised in the past.

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Nov 08: None (Below G1) Nov 09: None (Below G1) Nov 10: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state.

11/08/2014 @ 02:00 UTC
The CME generated by the X1.6 solar flare appears to be directed away from Earth. Little to no impact on our geomagnetic field is to be expected.

11/07/2014 @ 18:30 UTC
An updated coronagraph image courtesy of LASCO C2 confirms a CME.

11/07/2014 @ 18:30 UTC
Video presentation of the event is now available.

11/07/2014 @ 18:30 UTC
Updated imagery by AIA 193 shows dimming to the north of the active region following the event. The CME is likely headed to the north and east. A possible Earth directed component will need to be determined once coronagraph imagery becomes available.

11/07/2014 @ 18:05 UTC
Type II and Type IV radio emissions associated with this event. This indicates a possible CME. More information to follow later today.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 07 1719 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 602 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 07 1735 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 07 1749 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Nov 07 1751 UTC
End Time: 2014 Nov 07 1800 UTC
Duration: 11 minutes
Peak Flux: 560 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 136 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

11/07/2014 @ 18:00 UTC
Sunspot region 2205 produced a strong X1.6 solar flare peaking at 17:26 UTC on November 7th. More details to follow.

SUMMARY: X-ray Event exceeded X1
Begin Time: 2014 Nov 07 1653 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Nov 07 1726 UTC
End Time: 2014 Nov 07 1734 UTC
X-ray Class: X1.6
Location: N15E38
NOAA Scale: R3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Area of impact consists of large portions of the sunlit side of Earth, strongest at the sub-solar point.
Radio - Wide area blackout of HF (high frequency) radio communication for about an hour.

AIA VIDEO:

FLARE IMAGERY:

CME IMAGERY:

GOES-15 X-Ray FLUX: