EVENT LOG: M4.5 SOLAR FLARE     DATE: 9/9/2014 @ 00:29 UTC     SOURCE: Sunspot 2158
DISCUSSION:

A long duration solar flare measuring M4.5 was observed around region 2158 peaking at 00:29 UTC on September 9, 2014. The event was associated with Type II and IV radio emissions, and a Ten Flare lasting 10 minutes and measuring 370 solar flux units. A coronal mass ejection (CME) became visible soon after in LASCO C2 imagery and while most of the plasma looks to be headed to the northeast, there does appear to be a weaker Earth directed component. A prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a glancing blow impact by late September 11 or early September 12. NOAA/SWPC issued a watch for at least minor geomagnetic storming (G1) beginning on Sept. 12.

LOG ENTRIES:

09/12/2014 @ 10:20 UTC
CME from this event swept past Earth at 23:46 UTC / Sept 11. Minor geomagnetic storming was observed at high latitudes.

09/09/2014 @ 18:40 UTC
G2 Storm watch issued by NOAA/SWPC beginning early on Sept. 12. Geomagnetic conditions will of course depend on the strength of the actual incoming shock impact, followed by solar wind characteristics (Bz/IMF) in the hours following any such impact. More to follow in the days ahead.

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G2 Predicted
Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:
Sep 10: None (Below G1) Sep 11: None (Below G1) Sep 12: G2 (Moderate)
THIS SUPERSEDES ANY/ALL PRIOR WATCHES IN EFFECT
Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 55 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.
Induced Currents - Power grid fluctuations can occur. High-latitude power systems may experience voltage alarms.
Spacecraft - Satellite orientation irregularities may occur; increased drag on low Earth-orbit satellites is possible.
Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation can fade at higher latitudes.
Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as New York to Wisconsin to Washington state..

09/09/2014 @ 14:00 UTC
A prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a glancing blow impact by September 11. A minor increase in geomagnetic activity will be possible at high latitudes.

09/09/2014 @ 10:45 UTC
Here is a closer look at the coronal mass ejection (CME) from last night following the M4.5 solar flare. Based on complete coronagraph imagery from LASCO C2 and C3, the expanding plasma cloud was directed mostly to the north and east, but also contains what appears to be a fainter Earth directed component. The Earth directed component is more evident when viewing in the wider angle C3 view. It is possible that we could see a glancing blow to our geomagnetic field within 48-72 hours from this CME. More updates regarding this event once an updated tracking model becomes available. Click image below to view a video.

09/09/2014 @ 03:05 UTC
Video of the M4.5 solar flare by the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) is now uploaded.

09/09/2014 @ 02:40 UTC
AIA video of the event is now available. Located to the right.

09/09/2014 @ 01:20 UTC
New coronagraph imagery reveals that a majority of the plasma is directed northeast, however there does appears to be an Earth directed component. More to follow.

09/09/2014 @ 00:50 UTC
Region 2158 produced a long duration M4.5 solar flare this evening peaking at 00:29 UTC UTC. The event was associated with Type II and Type IV radio emissions, along with a 10cm Radio Burst (Ten Flare) measuring 370 solar flux units and lasting 10 minutes. A coronal mass ejection (CME) is now visible in the latest LASCO C2 imagery. More details to follow regarding a possible Earth directed component.

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 09 0019 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 999 km/s
Description: Type II emissions occur in association with eruptions on the sun and typically indicate a coronal mass ejection is associated with a flare event.

ALERT: Type IV Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 08 2340 UTC
Description: Type IV emissions occur in association with major eruptions on the sun and are typically associated with strong coronal mass ejections and solar radiation storms.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2014 Sep 08 2349 UTC
Maximum Time: 2014 Sep 08 2352 UTC
End Time: 2014 Sep 08 2359 UTC
Duration: 10 minutes
Peak Flux: 370 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 164 sfu
Description: A 10cm radio burst indicates that the electromagnetic burst associated with a solar flare at the 10cm wavelength was double or greater than the initial 10cm radio background. This can be indicative of significant radio noise in association with a solar flare. This noise is generally short-lived but can cause interference for sensitive receivers including radar, GPS, and satellite communications.

AIA VIDEO:

FLARE IMAGERY:

CME IMAGERY:

GOES-15 X-Ray FLUX: