Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

:Issued: 2018 Oct 18 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 18-Oct 20 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 18-Oct 20 2018

            Oct 18     Oct 19     Oct 20
00-03UT        1          3          3     
03-06UT        2          3          3     
06-09UT        2          3          2     
09-12UT        1          2          2     
12-15UT        1          2          2     
15-18UT        1          4          2     
18-21UT        3          5 (G1)     2     
21-00UT        3          4          2     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 19 October. No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.
:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               25            35            30
Mid/Minor_Storm          10            25            10
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             5             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            10            15
High/Minor_Storm         25            25            30
High/Major-Severe_Storm  35            60            40
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet levels over the next few days. A minor geomagnetic enhancement is in the forecast beginning late October 18th and into the 19th due to a potential coronal hole stream.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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