Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Mar 25 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 25-Mar 27 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 25-Mar 27 2017

            Mar 25     Mar 26     Mar 27
00-03UT        3          3          4     
03-06UT        3          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        2          2          3     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        2          3          4     
21-00UT        2          4          5 (G1)

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on day three
(27 Mar) due to the arrival of a polar-connected negative polarity
coronal hole high speed stream.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               20            10            35
Mid/Minor_Storm           5             5            20
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         25            20            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  25            20            30

Aurora Forecast
Another round of minor (G1) storming possible by March 27th when another coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective. Visible aurora will remain possible over the next several days.

Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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