Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

:Issued: 2019 Feb 15 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 15-Feb 17 2019 is 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 15-Feb 17 2019

            Feb 15     Feb 16     Feb 17
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        1          1          1     
06-09UT        1          1          1     
09-12UT        0          1          1     
12-15UT        2          1          1     
15-18UT        2          1          1     
18-21UT        2          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.


:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               15             5            10
Mid/Minor_Storm           1             1             1
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         20            20            15
High/Major-Severe_Storm  15            10            10
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
Geomagnetic activity is predicted to be at low levels over the next few days. Visible aurora should be confined to the polar regions.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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