Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Dec 12 0035 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 12-Dec 14 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 12-Dec 14 2017

            Dec 12     Dec 13     Dec 14
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        2          4          3     
06-09UT        2          4          2     
09-12UT        3          3          2     
12-15UT        4          3          1     
15-18UT        4          2          1     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        3          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Mid/Active               25            25            10
Mid/Minor_Storm          10            10             5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            20
High/Minor_Storm         30            25            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  35            35            15
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
A coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth by late on December 11th. A geomagnetic enhancement (Kp=4) will be possible at higher latitudes. Sky watchers around the polar zones should be alert for visible aurora during the next 24-48 hours.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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