Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Jan 17 0031 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 1 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Jan 17-Jan 19 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Jan 17-Jan 19 2017

            Jan 17     Jan 18     Jan 19
00-03UT        2          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        2          3          4     
06-09UT        2          3          3     
09-12UT        2          3          3     
12-15UT        1          3          3     
15-18UT        2          4          3     
18-21UT        3          5 (G1)     4     
21-00UT        3          5 (G1)     4     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and
three (18-19 Jan) due to CH HSS effects.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Mid/Active               15            45            45
Mid/Minor_Storm           5            25            25
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             5             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              20             5            10
High/Minor_Storm         25            25            30
High/Major-Severe_Storm  20            70            60

Aurora Forecast
A coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective by January 18th. Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming will be possible at higher latitudes. Aurora watchers should be alert by midweek.

Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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