Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Feb 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 21-Feb 23 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 21-Feb 23 2017

            Feb 21     Feb 22     Feb 23
00-03UT        3          3          5 (G1)
03-06UT        3          3          4     
06-09UT        2          2          3     
09-12UT        2          2          3     
12-15UT        2          3          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        3          4          3     
21-00UT        3          4          4     

Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) storming is likely on day
three (23 Feb), under the enhanced conditions of the CH HSS.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               20            30            40
Mid/Minor_Storm           5            15            25
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            10
High/Minor_Storm         30            30            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  30            40            60

Aurora Forecast
A high speed coronal hole stream is expected to become geoeffective by February 23rd. Enhanced geomagnetic activity reaching minor (G1) storm levels will be possible once the solar wind stream arrives past Earth. Visible aurora will be possible at higher latitudes.

Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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