Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2019 Oct 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 22-Oct 24 2019 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 22-Oct 24 2019

            Oct 22     Oct 23     Oct 24
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        2          1          2     
06-09UT        2          1          2     
09-12UT        2          1          3     
12-15UT        2          2          4     
15-18UT        2          1          4     
18-21UT        2          1          4     
21-00UT        2          2          5 (G1)

Rationale: CIR arrival followed by onset of a positive polarity CH HSS
is likely to cause responses to the G1 (Minor) storm levels late on 24
Oct.
:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               15             5            40
Mid/Minor_Storm           5             1            25
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            10
High/Minor_Storm         25            15            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  25             5            60
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
Minor (G1) geomagnetic storming will be possible beginning late on Octobe 24th when a coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth. More updates in the days ahead.


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Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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