Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Aug 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 19-Aug 21 2017 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 19-Aug 21 2017

            Aug 19     Aug 20     Aug 21
00-03UT        4          4          4     
03-06UT        4          3          3     
06-09UT        3          3          3     
09-12UT        3          3          3     
12-15UT        2          2          2     
15-18UT        3          2          2     
18-21UT        3          3          2     
21-00UT        4          3          2     

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected. 
Unsettled to active levels are expected for the forecast period (19-21
Aug) due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               30            25            15
Mid/Minor_Storm          10             5             5
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              10            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         30            30            30
High/Major-Severe_Storm  45            40            25
#

Aurora Forecast
Periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity (Kp4) will remain possible during the next 24-48 hours while a high speed solar wind stream remains geoeffective. An isolated period of minor (G1) storming will also remain a possibility. Visible aurora will be possible at high latitudes.


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Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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