Geomagnetic Activity and Aurora Forecast

NOTICE:
The forecast data below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to spaceweather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2018 Feb 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2018 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2018

            Feb 24     Feb 25     Feb 26
00-03UT        4          3          4     
03-06UT        3          2          5 (G1)
06-09UT        2          2          4     
09-12UT        2          2          4     
12-15UT        2          3          3     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        2          4          3     
21-00UT        3          4          3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels are likely on 26 Feb due
to anticipated influence from a negative polarity CH HSS.

:Product: 3-Day Probability Forecast
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
Mid/Active               30            30            35
Mid/Minor_Storm          10            15            25
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            10            10
High/Minor_Storm         30            25            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  40            50            65
#

Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast
A coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth beginning February 25th. Minor geomagnetic storming will be possible at higher latitudes.


Click HERE for the latest Alerts, Watches and Warnings.


Source Links: http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-forecast.txt
              http://services.swpc.noaa.gov/text/3-day-solar-geomag-predictions.txt 
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