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Regions
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2242
2241
2240
2239
2236
2235

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Events

-
(<24h)
M1.3
M6.9
(<72h)
M1.4
M8.7
M1.1
M1.5

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Top 10
Flares
-
01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X3.1
07. X2.8
08. X2.3
09. X2.2
10. X2.2


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The Sun Today : Updated December 19, 2014

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Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 75%
X-Class: 25%

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Geomag. Storm    YES
Radiation Storm    NO

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Status
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Status

3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
December 19
December 20
December 21
4 (G0)
Max Kp
4 (G0)
Max Kp
6 (G2)
Max Kp
Prob-M 20%
Prob-H 50%
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Prob-M 25%
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  AVERAGES | NOV. Solar Flux 155.3 | Sunspots 101.8 | Flare Max X1.6

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December 19, 2014 @ 12:25 UTC
Solar Update / Geomagnetic Storm Watch This Weekend
Good morning. Below is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Friday. Solar activity increased once again to high levels. Region 2241 was responsible for the largest event of the period, an M6.9 solar flare at 21:58 UTC (Dec 18). Coronagraph imagery reveals a faint halo coronal mass ejection (CME) with a potential Earth directed component. Prediction models are calling for an impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. This could lead to a potential geomagnetic storm if an impact does materialize. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert this weekend. Region 2242, along with interaction between regions 2235 and 2237, produced a moderate M1.3 flare peaking at 09:44 UTC (Dec 19). All other visible regions remained stable. A new sunspot is forming in the southeast quadrant and could be assigned a number later today. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the latest data and imagery.

December 19, 2014 @ 04:55 UTC
Flaring Continues / Potential Earth Directed CME
More flaring to report, this time a moderately strong M6.9 solar flare around region 2241 at 21:58 UTC. Although coronagraph imagery still needs to be backfilled, new photos released by LASCO C3 show a coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the sun with a potential Earth directed component. An updated CME prediction model released by the Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a potential impact to our geomagnetic field by December 21. More updates once additional imagery becomes available. Click HERE for video of the solar flare.

December 17, 2014 @ 05:00 UTC
Strong Solar Flare Observed (M8.7)
Solar activity reached high levels early Wednesday morning. Expanding sunspot 2242, now located in a geoeffective position, produced a strong M8.7 solar flare peaking at 04:50 UTC. The event was associated with a 7 minute long Radio Burst (TenFlare) measuring 320 solar flux units (SFU) and a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 910 km/s. Click HERE for a video. Region 2242, along with region 2241, will each remain a threat for additional moderate to strong solar flares. More updates regarding a possible CME once additional information becomes available. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest updates.

UPDATE: A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced by the M8.7 solar flare and appears to be directed mostly to the south and away from our planet. More updates later this morning if necessary. Regions 2241 and 2242 will remain a threat for additional solar flares.


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 December 19 1230 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels due to an M6/2N (R2-moderate)
flare which occurred at 18/2158 UTC from Region 2241 (S09W00,
Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and an M1/1n (R1-Minor) at 19/0944 UTC from Region
2242 (S18W23, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta).  An associated Type-II radio sweep
(estimated speed of 664 km/s) was observed associated with the M6 flare
as well as an asymmetric full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) first
observed in SOHO/LASCO C3 imagery at 19/0104 UTC.  There was a
concurrent filament eruption off the SE limb during this time, however
imagery gaps preclude the differentiation of the two events.  Continued
growth was observed in the intermediate areas of Regions 2241 and 2242
with very apparent E-W oriented deltas.  WSA/ENLIL modeling of the CME
shows a likely arrival around early to mid-day on 21 December.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels for the next three days (19-21 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242
continue to grow in areal coverage as well as maintain complex magnetic
structures. A chance also exists for an isolated X-class event
(R3-Strong) during the forecast period.

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NOAA SUNSPOT SUMMARY | SolarHam Sunspot Summary

A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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