Strong Eruption / CME / Strong Radiation Storm
05/23/2013 by Kevin VE3EN at 11:45 UTC

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Updated 05/22/2013 @ 15:30 UTC
Strong Solar Flare Around 1745 / Large CME
A strong eruption peaking at M5.0 around Sunspot 1745 on Wednesday morning produced a bright Coronal Mass Ejection. This is the second CME of the morning, however this one could have somewhat of an Earth directed component. I will provide further updates as the day goes on. Stay Tuned for more information.

Click HERE to watch a movie of the solar flare and CME.

Coronal Mass Ejection: The CME Prediction Model released by Goddard Space Flight Center is calling for a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) to sweep past Earth by May 25. Click on the image below to watch the latest model. Most of the material was directed to the west, however a portion of the plasma cloud could be directed this way. An increase in geomagnetic activity will be possible this weekend.

Click HERE for a video by Lasco C2.

Strong Radiation Storm: A Radiation Storm reaching the Strong S3 Level is currently in progress. Energetic Protons continue to stream past Earth following a strong solar flare on Wednesday morning.

ALERT: Proton Event 10MeV Integral Flux exceeded 1000pfu
Begin Time: 2013 May 23 0330 UTC
NOAA Scale: S3 - Strong
Potential Impacts: Radiation - Passengers and crew in high latitude, high altitude flights may experience increasing radiation exposures. Astronauts on EVA (extra-vehicular activity) are exposed to elevated radiation levels.
Spacecraft - Single-event upsets to satellite operations, noise in imaging systems, and slight reduction of efficiency in solar panels are likely.
Radio - Degraded or episodically blacked-out polar HF (high frequency) radio propagation.

Updated 05/23/2013 @ 11:45 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Below is an updated image of the visible solar disk on Thursday morning. Solar activity has been low since the isolated M5.0 event yesterday morning around region 1745 which is now rotating onto the west limb. The M5.0 event generated a bright Coronal Mass Ejection that was directed mostly to the west. A glancing blow impact will be possible on Saturday, however a geomagnetic storm is not expected at this time. Energetic proton levels streaming past Earth increased to Strong S3 Radiation Storm Levels following the eruption, but has since fallen back somewhat to Moderate S2 Levels. There will remain a chance for C-Class solar flares and perhaps another isolated M-Class event, particularly around Sunspots 1755 and 1756. Stay Tuned to SolarHam.com, the best place to track all of the latest Space Weather news and data.

Visible Solar Disk (Thursday) - Click to Open

Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2013 May 22 2200 UTC


Joint USAF/NOAA Solar Geophysical Activity Report and Forecast
SDF Number 142 Issued at 2200Z on 22 May 2013


IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 21/2100Z to
22/2100Z: Solar activity has been at high levels for the past 24 hours.
The largest solar event of the period was a M5 event observed at
22/1332Z from Region 1745 (N13W80). There are currently 7 numbered
sunspot regions on the disk.

IB.  Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low with
a chance for M-class flares and a slight chance for an X-class flare on
days one, two, and three (23 May, 24 May, 25 May).


IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z: The geomagnetic
field has been at quiet to active levels for the past 24 hours. Solar
wind speed, as measured by the ACE spacecraft, reached a peak speed of
500 km/s at 22/0442Z. Total IMF reached 6 nT at 22/2005Z. The maximum
southward component of Bz reached -5 nT at 21/2357Z. Protons greater
than 10 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 279 pfu at
22/2035Z. Protons greater than 100 MeV at geosynchronous orbit reached a
peak level of 3 pfu at 22/1830Z. Electrons greater than 2 MeV at
geosynchronous orbit reached a peak level of 722 pfu.

IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected
to be at unsettled to active levels on day one (23 May), quiet to
unsettled levels on day two (24 May) and quiet to active levels on day
three (25 May). Protons are expected to cross threshold on days one and
two (23 May, 24 May) and are likely to cross threshold on day three (25
May).


III.  Event probabilities 23 May-25 May
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    20/20/20
Proton     99/99/70
PCAF       RED




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