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Regions
-
2278
2277
2276
2275
2273
2272
2271
2268

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Events

-
(<24h)
M2.4
(<72h)
M1.7
M2.0

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Flares
-
01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X3.1
07. X2.8
08. X2.3
09. X2.2
10. X2.2


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Geomag. Storm    YES
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3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
January 31
February 1
February 2
5 (G1)
Max Kp
5 (G1)
Max Kp
4 (G0)
Max Kp
Prob-M 20%
Prob-H 60%
Prob-M 15%
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January 30, 2015 @ 14:30 UTC
Solar Update / M2.4 Flare / Aurora Watch
Good morning and welcome to Friday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours remained at moderate levels. Region 2277 produced the strongest X-Ray event, an M2.4 solar flare at 12:16 UTC (Jan 30). Region 2268 was responsible for a pair of M-Flares, including an M2.0 at 00:44 UTC (Jan 30). Neither of these events triggered a coronal mass ejection (CME). Both regions remain magnetically complex and could produce additional solar flares of the moderate to strong variety. All other visible regions were relatively stable.

An elevated solar wind stream flowing from a large southern hemisphere coronal hole is predicted to become geoeffective during the next few days (Jan 30-31). Enhanced geomagnetic activity will be possible at high latitudes. Sky watchers, especially around the Arctic Circle should remain alert for visual aurora displays.


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2015 January 31 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity continued at moderate levels with a pair of M-class
flares originating from Region 2268 (S10W31, Fhc/beta-gamma).  The first
was an M2 flare at 30/0044 UTC followed by a long duration M1 flare at
30/0536 UTC.  Later in period, Region 2277 (N08E47, Fkc/beta-gamma)
produced an impulsive M2 at 30/1216 UTC.  No apparent Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in available LASCO coronagraph imagery from these
events.

Regions 2268 and 2277 were also responsible for multiple C-class flares
during the period.  Consolidation was observed in Region 2271 (N17W58,
Dac/beta-gamma), while slight decay was noted in the intermediate areas
of Regions 2268 and 2271.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be at moderate levels (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) with a chance for X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
activity over the next three days (31 Jan-02 Feb). The most likely
source for any enhanced flare activity are Regions 2268 and 2277 due to
their large size and complex magnetic structures.

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