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2597

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Flares
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01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X3.1
07. X2.8
08. X2.7
09. X2.3
10. X2.2


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The Sun Today : Updated September 28, 2016

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Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 05%
X-Class: 01%

Active Watches
Geomag. Storm    YES
Radiation Storm    NO

Solar X-Rays:
Status
Geomagnetic Field:
Status

3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
September 28
September 29
September 30
6 (G2)
Max Kp
6 (G2)
Max Kp
6 (G2)
Max Kp
Prob-M 20%
Prob-H 55%
Prob-M 25%
Prob-H 60%
Prob-M 20%
Prob-H 55%

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September 27, 2016 @ 19:10 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Warning
As expected, minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming is being observed at higher latitudes. An increased solar wind speed currently near 600 km/s is contributing to the storm. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visible aurora tonight as periods of storming will remain possible.

September 27, 2016 @ 00:50 UTC
Extended Period of Storming Expected / Aurora Watch
Aurora chasers should have their cameras ready during the next several nights as minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming will be possible during the next four (4) days. A high speed solar wind stream flowing from a large, soon to be geoeffective coronal hole feature will begin to sweep past Earth and bring along with it a possible light show for viewers at middle to high latitudes. Continue to monitor SolarHam.com for the most up to date spaceweather data and imagery.

Below is a fantastic new image from Sunday night courtesy of our friend Marketa Murray up in Alaska. Thanks for sharing!

September 25, 2016 @ 23:30 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
Good evening. Isolated periods of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming is being observed at higher latitudes thanks to gentle solar wind enhancements. A further increase will be possible by September 28th when a pair of coronal holes are expected to become geoeffective. Minor (G1) to Moderate (G2) storm conditions are expected within the next 48-72 hours. Sky watchers at middle to high latitudes should be alert for visible aurora during the next several nights. More updates in the days ahead.

Coronal Holes (SDO/AIA)

September 21, 2016 @ 01:50 UTC
Solar Update
New sunspot 2595 formed rapidly in the northwest quadrant, but is already approaching the west limb. Any future potential activity around this region will likely not be Earth directed. Elsewhere, region 2593, now rotating into the northwest quadrant at middle latitude, showed new spot growth within the past 12 hours and will be monitored. Minor C-Class solar flares will remain possible during the next 24 hours.

A brief period of minor (G1) geomagnetic storming was observed at higher latitudes following the onset of a high speed solar wind stream. A return to quieter levels is to be expected during the next day or so.

Attached image showing region 2595 is courtesy of SDO/HMI.

September 20, 2016 @ 01:30 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Watch (UPDATED)
An anticipated high speed solar wind stream (near 600 km/s) is now moving past Earth. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch is currently in effect until 06:00 UTC (Sept 20). Sky watchers at higher latitudes should be alert for visible aurora tonight.

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2016 Sep 20 0030 UTC
Valid To: 2016 Sep 20 0600 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2016 September 28 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels. Region 2597 (S14W52, Dao/beta)
simplified slightly into a bipolar magnetic configuration; although a
small area of minor shear was present near the leader spots. The region
produced a C1/Sf at 27/0748 UTC. An area of coronal dimming occurred
over the southern hemisphere after 26/2200 UTC as observed in SDO/AIA
imagery, and continued on into early this period. The dimming appeared
to be associated with a CME from the SW limb first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery at 27/0024 UTC. Forecaster analysis and WSA/Enlil
modeling determined the CME to be off the Sun-Earth line.

Other activity included a disappearing solar filament (DSF) centered
near S26W49 that occurred from 27/2256 UTC to 27/2354 UTC, as observed 
in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG H-Alpha imagery. More forecaster analysis will
occur to determine if there is a CME associated with this eruption as
LASCO coronagraph imagery becomes available.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels with a chance for
C-class flares over the next three days (28-30 Sep).

[Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity]

NOAA SUNSPOT SUMMARY | SolarHam Sunspot Summary

A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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