Solar Flare Probabilities   (Updated May 25, 2022)

Whole Disk Probability
Flare Class
C
M
X
Proton
Prob (%)
90
30
10
10

Active Region Probability

3024
05
01
01
01
3023
25
05
01
01
3022
05
01
01
01
3021
05
01
01
01
3020
05
01
01
01
3017
35
10
01
01
3014
60
25
05
10

Discussion
.Forecast..

Low solar activity, with a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2; Minor-Moderate radio blackouts) and slight chance for X-class flares (R3; Strong) is expected 26 May. Low solar activity is expected on 27 May, with a slight chance for M-class flares; and low solar activity is likely on 28 May with a slight chance of M-class flares. This downward trend is primarily due to Regions 3014 and 3017 rotating to or beyond the limb.

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