3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast   (Updated December 5, 2022)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

Dec. 5
Dec. 6
Dec. 7

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               20            10            30
Mid/Minor_Storm           5             1            10
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         20            20            30
High/Major-Severe_Storm  25            20            40
Kp Index Breakdown

            Dec 05       Dec 06       Dec 07
00-03UT       3.67         1.67         2.00     
03-06UT       3.67         1.67         2.00     
06-09UT       2.00         1.67         2.00     
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         1.00     
12-15UT       1.00         1.33         2.00     
15-18UT       1.00         0.67         2.67     
18-21UT       1.00         1.33         4.00     
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         4.00     

Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   

                                

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.

.Forecast...
Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be quiet and unsettled on 05
Dec under waning positive polarity CH HSS influence. Quiet conditions
are expected to prevail over 06 Dec under a nominal solar wind regime.
Late on 07, the onset of a negative polarity CH HSS will likely increase
geomagnetic conditions to active levels.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

Visible aurora should be mostly confined to the polar regions during the next 48 hours.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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