3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (September 24, 2021)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

September 24
September 25
September 26

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               30            35            45
Mid/Minor_Storm          10            15            30
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15             5
High/Minor_Storm         30            30            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  40            50            75
Kp Index Breakdown

            Sep 24     Sep 25     Sep 26
00-03UT        3          3          2     
03-06UT        4          2          2     
06-09UT        4          2          1     
09-12UT        3          2          1     
12-15UT        3          1          1     
15-18UT        3          1          5 (G1)
18-21UT        2          2          5 (G1)
21-00UT        2          2          4      


Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   
                                
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active.

.Forecast...
Quiet to active levels are expected on 24 Sep with a negative polarity
CH HSS. Less active conditions are expected on 23 Sep as CH HSS effects
wane. A G1 (Minor) Watch has been issued for 26 Sep for a positive
polarity CH HSS. This also brings the chance for G2 (Moderate)
conditions.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

A coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth by September 25th and possibly lead to geomagnetic storming at higher latitudes. Sky watchers at higher latitudes should be alert for visible aurora this weekend.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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