3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (October 21, 2021)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

October 21
October 22
October 23

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               25            25            15
Mid/Minor_Storm           5             5             1
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              20            15            15
High/Minor_Storm         30            30            20
High/Major-Severe_Storm  30            30            20
Kp Index Breakdown

            Oct 21     Oct 22     Oct 23
00-03UT        3          2          2     
03-06UT        3          3          1     
06-09UT        2          2          1     
09-12UT        2          2          1     
12-15UT        2          2          1     
15-18UT        3          2          1     
18-21UT        3          2          2     
21-00UT        2          2          2     


Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   
                                

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet with an isolated unsettled period.

.Forecast...
Quiet to unsettled levels are expected 21 Oct, with a chance for an
isolated active period, in response to CH HSS effects. Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected 22 Oct as CH HSS effects begin to
wane. A mostly quiet geomagnetic field is expected 23 Oct.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

High latitude aurora will be likely during the next 24 hours due to ongoing coronal hole stream effects.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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