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3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (April 14, 2021)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

April 14
April 15
April 16

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               10            20            40
Mid/Minor_Storm           1             5            15
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            10
High/Minor_Storm         20            25            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  15            25            50
Kp Index Breakdown

            Apr 14     Apr 15     Apr 16
00-03UT        2          3          2     
03-06UT        2          2          1     
06-09UT        2          2          3     
09-12UT        1          2          3     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          4     
18-21UT        2          2          4     
21-00UT        2          2          4     
 

Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   
                                
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
Predominantly quiet conditions are expected on 14 Apr, as influences
from an isolated positive polarity CH are no longer likely. Unsettled
conditions are expected on 15 Apr due to possible SSBC effects. Active
conditions, with a chance for G1 (Minor) storm periods, are likely on 16
Apr due to combined CIR and early CH HSS effects.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

Visible aurora will be likely beginning April 16th due to coronal hole stream effects.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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