3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (June 15, 2021)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

June 15
June 16
June 17

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               25            25            40
Mid/Minor_Storm           5             5            20
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             1             5
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            15            10
High/Minor_Storm         30            30            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  35            35            60
Kp Index Breakdown

            Jun 15     Jun 16     Jun 17
00-03UT        2          4          4     
03-06UT        2          3          5 (G1)
06-09UT        1          3          4     
09-12UT        1          2          3     
12-15UT        2          2          3     
15-18UT        3          2          3     
18-21UT        3          2          3     
21-00UT        4          3          3   
 

Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   
                                
.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
On 15 and 16 Jun, the geomagnetic field is likely to reach active
conditions due to influence from a negative polarity CH HSS. By 17 Jun,
conditions are expected to increase to unsettled to active levels, with
isolated periods G1 (Minor) storming possible, as CH effects persist.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

A coronal hole stream is expected to reach Earth beginning June 15th. A minor geomagnetic enhancement will be possible at higher latitudes.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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