3 Day Geomagnetic and Aurora Forecast (December 2, 2021)

NOTICE:
The geomagnetic forecast below is provided by the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) and is based on the latest available data and modelling. When it comes to space weather, current geomagnetic conditions can change rapidly and without notice. Be sure to monitor the SolarHam website for the most up to date information.

December 2
December 3
December 4

Geomagnetic 3 Day Probabilities (%)

# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at Middle Latitude
:Prob_Mid:
Mid/Active               15            35            25
Mid/Minor_Storm           5            20            10
Mid/Major-Severe_Storm    1             5             1
#
# Probability of Geomagnetic conditions at High Latitudes
:Prob_High:
High/Active              15            10            15
High/Minor_Storm         25            30            25
High/Major-Severe_Storm  25            50            35
Kp Index Breakdown

            Dec 02     Dec 03     Dec 04
00-03UT        3          3          3     
03-06UT        3          4          3     
06-09UT        2          2          3     
09-12UT        2          2          2     
12-15UT        2          3          2     
15-18UT        2          3          3     
18-21UT        3          4          3     
21-00UT        3          3          3      


Geospace Discussion (SWPC)

   
                                

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly at active or unsettled levels.

.Forecast...
Day 1 (02 Dec) is expected to be at unsettled levels with another
positive polarity HSS and possible early influence from the 29 Nov CME.
The bulk of the CME is still thought to pass south of Earth and arrive
at its closest point on 03 Dec. Active conditions are expected on 03 Dec
with the combined effects of the CME and HSS with a chance of observing
G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms. Another HSS will influence Earth on 03
Dec keeping the environment at mostly unsettled levels.


Latest Kp Index

Aurora Forecast

An enhanced solar wind stream is currently disturbing our geomagnetic field. Visible aurora will be likely at higher latitudes.

Aurora Oval Forecast

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