SolarHam News (October 2021)

Solar Update
October 13, 2021 @ 12:30 UTC
With all the focus on geomagnetic activity and aurora the past few days, we shift back to what is happening on the Sun. Solar activity continues at very low levels with only small B-Class flares detected within the past 24 hours around AR 2882. A new area of flux is emerging just to the west of 2882 in the northwest quadrant and should be assigned AR 2885 later today. The remainder of the visible disk is currently spotless. Image below by SDO/HMI.

Geomagnetic Storm Update
October 12, 2021 @ 21:10 UTC
Geomagnetic storming reaching Moderate G2 levels continued on Tuesday in the wake of the CME passage last night. The storm sparked visible aurora across many locations, including mostly all of Canada and the northern tier of the United States. Things are a little quieter at the moment, however visible aurora will be likely at higher latitudes during the next 24 hours while the solar wind stream remains elevated.

Below is a colorful aurora photo captured last night by Runólfur Hauksson from Iceland. Nice shot and thanks for sharing!

Incoming CME Detected / Storm in Progress
October 12, 2021 @ 02:05 UTC
The CME from the M1.6 solar flare on October 9th has finally reached the DSCOVR spacecraft and should sweep past Earth within the hour. The solar wind speed looks to be near 500 km/s and the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is currently in a south pointing orientation which is good news for the prospects of a geomagnetic storm. More to follow.

UPDATE @ 02:30 UTC: The magnetometer located in Boulder, Colorado just detected a sudden deviation in Earths geomagnetic field, marking the exact moment the CME swept past our planet. Geomagnetic storm conditions will be likely in the hours ahead. Aurora sky watchers should be alert.

UPDATE #2 @ 03:00 UTC: A geomagnetic storm is now in progress. The minor (G1) storm threshold was reached at 02:57 UTC. Moderate (G2) storming will also be possible. Visible aurora likely at middle to high latitudes tonight.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 12 0447 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0300-0600 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2021 Oct 12 0230 UTC
Deviation: 33 nT
Station: WNG

Geomagnetic Storm Watch
October 9, 2021 @ 22:00 UTC
A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning Monday, October 11th when a coronal mass ejection (CME) observed on Saturday is expected to sweep past Earth. Aurora sky watchers should be alert within the next 48-72 hours. The CME was the result of an M1.6 solar flare around AR 2882, now directly facing Earth.

M-Flare and CME (UPDATED)
October 9, 2021 @ 11:05 UTC
Solar activity reached moderate levels today with an M1.6 solar flare observed around AR 2882 at 06:38 UTC (Oct 9). The flare was associated with a Type II radio emission with an estimated velocity of 608 km/s, along with a 10cm radio burst (TenFlare) lasting 27 minutes and measuring 430 solar flux units (SFU). Based on this data and imagery courtesy of SDO/AIA 093, a coronal mass ejection (CME) is likely and may be Earth directed. This will only be confirmed once Earth facing coronagraph imagery is up to date. More details to follow later today.

UPDATE: An updated image courtesy of LASCO C2 shows what appears to be an Earth directed, full halo coronal mass ejection (CME) leaving the Sun following the M1.6 solar flare earlier this morning. More to follow.

UPDATE #2: Another look at the CME is below, this time courtesy of STEREO Ahead. An impact past our planet will be likely within the next 72 hours and could lead to at least minor (G1) to moderate (G2) geomagnetic storming once it arrives. Perhaps some good news for aurora sky watchers towards the beginning of the upcoming week. A final update regarding this event will be released later today.

SUMMARY: 10cm Radio Burst
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 09 0630 UTC
Maximum Time: 2021 Oct 09 0648 UTC
End Time: 2021 Oct 09 0657 UTC
Duration: 27 minutes
Peak Flux: 430 sfu
Latest Penticton Noon Flux: 92 sfu

ALERT: Type II Radio Emission
Begin Time: 2021 Oct 09 0633 UTC
Estimated Velocity: 608 km/s

Solar Update
October 8, 2021 @ 01:00 UTC
Solar activity during the past 24 hours was low with a single C-Flare (C5.5) around AR 2882 early Thursday morning. This region is now the only active region remaining on the visible disk as AR 2880 decayed to spotless plage. AR 2882 has undergone several changes during the past 24 hours having formed and then lost a number of small trailing spots, and now suddenly new flux is emerging to the north of the main dark core. Another isolated C-Flare will be possible during the next 24 hours. Image below courtesy of SDO/HMI.

Solar Update
October 5, 2021 @ 01:00 UTC
Solar activity is currently at very low levels as both AR 2880 and 2882 are stable. There will remain a chance for an isolated C-Flare. Geomagnetic activity returned to quieter levels and is predicted to remain this way during the next 48 hours. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the most up to date space weather news and information.

Bz South
October 2, 2021 @ 10:35 UTC
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried past Earth via the solar wind is pointing south on Saturday morning, a condition that promotes elevated geomagnetic activity. Visible aurora will be likely around the polar zones.

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 4
Threshold Reached: 2021 Oct 02 1030 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0900-1200 UTC
Active Warning: Yes

Geomagnetic Update
October 1, 2021 @ 11:30 UTC
The geomagnetic field reached disturbed (Kp4) levels on a few occasions during the past 15 hours, likely due to a coronal mass ejection (CME) passing just by our planet. The solar wind speed increased from near 450 km/s to around 550 km/s and included a few brief periods of southward Bz. The increased speed looked more like the onset of a coronal hole stream, rather than an interplanetary shock passage. Unfortunately the prospects for a prolonged period of geomagnetic storming are waning , however brief geomagnetic enhancements will remain possible during the next 24 hours while the SW stream continues to be elevated.

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