Solar activity is currently at low levels. Newly assigned region 2932 produced a minor C4.2 flare at 08:32 UTC (Jan 15). AR 2929 located near center disk showed the most growth during the past 24 hours and will be monitored for additional development. All other regions appear to be mostly stable for now. AR 2924 is now turning onto the west limb and will soon be out of view. There will be a continued threat for an isolated moderate M-Flare with either 2929 or 2932 being the most likely source.
The CME observed on Friday following the eruption around AR 2925 was analyzed by NOAA/SWPC and looks to be mostly a miss. Only a weak glancing blow should be expected by late January 16th or into the 17th.
Geomagnetic activity returned to quieter levels following a period of minor (G1) to moderate (G2) storming. This was primarily due to the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) being in negative territory for a long duration. Active to minor storm conditions will remain in the forecast for the next 24 hours due to a now geoeffective coronal hole stream.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the most up to date space weather news, data and information.
Bz South / Moderate Geomagnetic Storm
January 14, 2022 @ 17:00 UTC (UPDATED @ 00:15 Jan 15)
The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried past Earth via the solar wind is currently tipped south. This could help disturb the geomagnetic field in the hours ahead.
UPDATE: The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) continues to point south (-14nT). The solar wind speed is fairly low by solar standards (365 km/s), however aurora will be likely at higher latitudes while the solar wind remains in this state.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 6
Threshold Reached: 2022 Jan 14 2358 UTC
Synoptic Period: 2100-2400 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G2 - Moderate
A reminder that a geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect this weekend (Jan 15 and 16) when a coronal hole stream is predicted to reach Earth. Visible aurora will be possible at higher latitudes.
Filament Eruption and CME
January 14, 2022 @ 18:00 UTC (UPDATED @ 20:15)
Much happening on the Sun! A filament in the vicinity of AR 2925 erupted today beginning around 13:00 UTC (Jan 14). This event launched a coronal mass ejection (CME) into space and possibly towards our planet. Earth facing coronagraph imagery is not yet updated, however it is clearly captured by STEREO Ahead. Much of the plasma cloud will likely be directed to the south and west, however an Earth directed component will be possible. This will only be confirmed once LASCO imagery is updated. More to follow.
UPDATE: Earth facing coronagraph imagery following the filament eruption in the southwest quadrant is now available. The CME generated by this event looks to be headed mostly away from Earth. There does appear to be a fainter Earth directed component that could pass Earth within 48-72 hours. More updates regarding this whenever necessary.
January 14, 2022 @ 02:20 UTC
Solar activity is now at moderate levels. An M1.8 Solar Flare was observed off the northeast limb around returning AR 2921 peaking at 02:03 UTC. Image below courtesy of SDO/AIA 131 angstroms.
January 14, 2022 @ 01:20 UTC
A spattering of sunspots are visible across the disk as we head into Friday. Most are magnetically stable and non threatening.
I will mention that it is nice to see both northern hemisphere and southern hemisphere sunspots continually forming at the same time. The previous Cycle 24 was quite out of sync with northern hemisphere spots peaking well before the south. If this current trend continues, it could lead towards what many are hoping, a stronger than expected Cycle 25. So far the numbers are promising.
Back to present day activity. AR 2921, the source of a couple of large farsided events is now about to turn back into view from behind the northeast limb. It remains to be seen if the region has any gas left in the tank as it turns back into view.
Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the most up to date space weather news and information.
Coronal Hole / Minor Storm Watch
January 13, 2022 @ 00:55 UTC
Coronal Hole #44 will be facing Earth over the next several days. A solar wind stream flowing from this zone is expected to reach Earth this weekend. A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm watch will be in effect beginning late on January 15th and into the 16th. Visible aurora will be likely at higher latitudes.
January 12, 2022 @ 11:00 UTC
A nice eruption was observed from just beyond the northeast limb. The source may be old region 2921, now just a few days from turning back into view. A coronal mass ejection (CME) was produced and will be directed away from Earth. We will get a look at the source location this weekend.
January 10, 2022 @ 03:50 UTC
A coronal mass ejection (CME) was just launched into space off the farside of the Sun. The STEREO Ahead spacecraft captured the source location which is about 4 or 5 days away from the east limb. Something to keep an eye on while we wait patiently for the next big Earth facing space weather event.
Minor Geomagnetic Storm
January 8, 2022 @ 20:55 UTC
A minor (G1) geomagnetic storm is currently in progress. The solar wind had been at background levels the past few days and a small increase in speed, along with a south pointing Bz was enough to push levels to the minor storm threshold. Visible aurora will be likely at higher latitudes if dark outside.
ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2022 Jan 08 2028 UTC
Synoptic Period: 1800-2100 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor
January 7, 2022 @ 20:45 UTC
Big sunspot region 2924 continues to evolve, but has been for the most part stable. The region will remain a threat for at least minor C-Class solar flares. We will begin to see the remains of old region 2907, along with a potential region in the northern hemisphere turn into view during the next 24 hours. With 2924 visible and potential regions turning into view, expect to see the X-Ray background levels climb somewhat and the solar flux index to rise above 100 once again.
January 6, 2022 @ 22:00 UTC
In addition to growing sunspot region 2924 in the southeast quadrant, old regions 2907 and 2908 are a few days away from the east limb. It remains to be seen if any large sunspots are still visible. In addition to those regions, another potential active region will be turning into view from behind the northeast limb at nearly the same time. Perhaps increased solar activity and a rise in the solar flux is on the horizon. Stay tuned for updates.
January 6, 2022 @ 01:50 UTC
Below is an updated look at AR 2924 and 2925 in the southeast quadrant. Rapid flux emergence was observed within the trailing section of 2924 during the past several hours. Solar activity remains at very low levels, however an isolated C-Flare will become more likely depending on further development. Also it should be noted that our old friends 2907 and 2908 from the previous rotation are about 3-4 days away from reaching the east limb. They were the source of a number of C-Flares and low level M-Flares last month.
January 4, 2022 @ 13:55 UTC
Good morning. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was at very low levels. Region 2916 rotated onto the west limb and is no longer in view. A new sunspot is forming in the southeast quadrant and should be assigned AR 2924 on Tuesday. Another spotted region is emerging from behind the southeast limb and we will get a better look during the next 24 hours. Image below by SDO/HMI.
First Flare of 2022
January 1, 2022 @ 11:20 UTC
A little bit of solar fireworks to ring in the new year. The remnants of AR 2918 produced an M1.1 solar flare this morning at 07:30 UTC (Jan 1). The region continues to move closer towards the northwest limb and any potential eruptions at this point should be directed away from Earth.