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2194
2193
2192
2187

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Events

-
(<24h)
M8.7
(<72h)
M1.7
M4.5
M3.9
X1.1

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Flares
-
01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X2.8
07. X2.3
08. X2.2
09. X2.2
10. X2.1

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The Sun Today : Updated October 21, 2014

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Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 65%
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Geomag. Storm    NO
Radiation Storm    NO

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3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
October 22
October 23
October 24
4 (G0)
Max Kp
4 (G0)
Max Kp
4 (G0)
Max Kp
Prob-M 10%
Prob-H 40%
Prob-M 10%
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Added 10/22/2014 @ 02:30 UTC
M8.7 Solar Flare Observed
Region 2192 is back at it again with a strong M8.7 solar flare observed at 01:59 UTC early Wednesday morning. Previous flaring around 2192 the past several days have failed to produce a noteworthy CME. Based on updated SDO imagery using the 193 angstroms channel, no significant coronal dimming, or shock appears evident. More updates to follow once coronagraph imagery becomes available. Click HERE for the event log.

Updated 10/21/2014 @ 11:25 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Tuesday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate with four M-Class solar flares observed. A total of five M-Flares were observed on Monday. All of the activity was centered around big sunspot 2192 which continues to transit the southeast quadrant. The largest of these events was an M4.5 flare peaking at 16:37 UTC. None of the flares generated a noteworthy coronal mass ejection (CME). Region 2192 contained a compact line between positive and negative magnetic polarity within the center of the group, however that line looks to have decayed somewhat. Despite this, 2192 remains a large, complex region that continues to evolve and will remain a threat for a moderate to strong solar flare on Tuesday. All other visible Earth facing regions, including newly numbered sunspot 2194 remain stable for the time being. An active region located just beyond the northeast limb is producing at least high level C-Flares and will begin to rotate into view during the next 24-48 hours.

A prolonged period of enhanced geomagnetic activity, including a brief period of minor (G1) storming was observed on Monday thanks to an elevated solar wind stream containing sectors of southward Bz. Sky watchers at high latitudes should remain alert for visual aurora during the next 24 hours as periods of enhanced activity will still be possible.

Added 10/21/2014 @ 00:55 UTC
Geomagnetic Storm Observed
A cold night in Abisko, Sweden + Clear Skies + Increased Geomagnetic Activity = The Photo Below. Our friend Ruben Roos captured the photo Monday evening (Oct 20) during a period of minor geomagnetic storming. Enhanced geomagnetic activity is being observed at high latitudes due to an enhanced solar wind stream interacting with our geomagnetic field. Sky watchers should remain alert for visible aurora if it is dark outside, especially if you are located around the Arctic Circle.


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 October 22 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate.  Region 2192 (S15E26, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta)
produced two M-class(NOAA Scale R1, minor) flares and several C-class
events. Both events were impulsive M1 events and occurred at 20/2255 UTC
and 20/1338 UTC. Region 2192 continued to grow, reaching approximately
2410 micro-hemispheres today. The remaining three spotted regions were
stable or decaying. A faint, southward biased, CME was observed in LASCO
C2 just before the period began, yesterday at around 20/2100 UTC. The
source region is estimated to be near Region 2192, though no actual
source event could be definitively identified. Without STEREO images, it
is not certain that this was even a front side event. Regardless, the
speed of this event (~300 km/s) was well below ambient background solar
wind speeds. Due to the faintness, and a slow speed, little to no impact
is expected further this week. No other Earth-directed CMEs were
observed.
     
.Forecast...
More M-class flares (R1-R2, minor to moderate) are likely from Region
2192, keeping solar activity at moderate levels.  There is a slight but
persistent chance for an X-class (R3 or greater) flare over the next
three days (22-24 Oct) from this same region.

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A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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