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Regions
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2200
2199
2197
2196
2195
2194

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Events

-
(<24h)
M3.5
M2.3
(<72h)
M6.6
M3.4
X2.0

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Top 10
Flares
-
01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X3.1
07. X2.8
08. X2.3
09. X2.2
10. X2.2


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The Sun Today : Updated October 30, 2014

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M-Class: 65%
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Geomag. Storm    NO
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3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
October 30
October 31
November 1
4 (G0)
Max Kp
3 (G0)
Max Kp
3 (G0)
Max Kp
Prob-M 10%
Prob-H 40%
Prob-M 10%
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Updated 10/30/2014 @ 11:00 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Below is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Thursday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours was moderate, although activity is gradually expected to decline to lower levels as region 2192 turns further behind the west limb. The departing active region continued to produce M-Flares, including an impulsive M3.5 at 01:35 UTC. The visible disk will be left with several small sunspots which are currently stable, including newly assigned regions 2199, 2200 and 2201. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the most up to date spaceweather data and imagery.

Added 10/30/2014 @ 00:15 UTC
GoodBye to 2192
Good evening. Solar activity during the day on Wednesday was moderate. A number of low level M-Flares were observed around region 2192, including an impulsive M2.3 flare at 21:22 UTC. Attached image courtesy of SDO/HMI shows region 2192 which is now turning onto the west limb and will soon be out of direct Earth view. Will we see the active region again? If it survives the trip around the farside of the sun, the spot cluster will reappear off the east limb during the second week of November. It takes approximately 13 days for an active region to rotate from one limb to another. If you were keeping track at home, region 2192 was responsible for at least 26 M-Class flares and 6 X-Class solar flares while in Earth view, none of which produced a noteworthy CME. Until next time?


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Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 October 30 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached high levels as Region 2192 (S12W84,
Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced six M-class events over the past 24
hours, the largest an M2/Sf at 29/2122 UTC.  None produced radio
emissions indicative of a CME, and no significant Earth-directed
eruptions were noted.  Evaluation of Region 2192 becomes increasingly
difficult as it approaches the limb, but reports from ground
observatories and loops of SDO imagery suggest the region may have grown
smaller but retains its complex magnetic characteristics.

Some new regions were observed in SDO/HMI intensitygram and GOES/SXI
imagery rotating onto the visible disk from the east limb.  These are
being monitored for potential numbering.  The remaining regions were
generally stable or decaying.

.Forecast...
The departure of Region 2192 around the west limb and the relatively
benign nature of the remaining regions on the disk means flare
probabilities are expected to decline.  For day 1 (30 Oct), M-flares
(R1-R2 radio blackouts) are likely, particularly early in the period. 
There is a lingering chance for an X-class event (R3 or greater radio
blackout).  By day 2 (31 Oct), there is only a chance for an M-flare and
slight chance for an X-class event as Region 2192 vanishes around the
limb.  By day 3 (01 Nov), C-class flares are likely, with only a slight
chance of an M-class event.

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A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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