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Regions
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2246
2245
2244
2242
2241
2240
2239
2236
2235

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Events

-
(<24h)
M1.2
(<72h)
X1.8
M1.3
M6.9

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Top 10
Flares
-
01. X6.9
02. X5.4
03. X4.9
04. X3.3
05. X3.2
06. X3.1
07. X2.8
08. X2.3
09. X2.2
10. X2.2


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The Sun Today : Updated December 21, 2014

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Solar Flare Risk
M-Class: 85%
X-Class: 40%

Active Watches
Geomag. Storm    YES
Radiation Storm    NO

Solar X-Rays:
Status
Geomagnetic Field:
Status

3-Day Geomagnetic Forecast [Details]
December 22
December 23
December 24
5 (G1)
Max Kp
3 (G0)
Max Kp
3 (G0)
Max Kp
Prob-M 20%
Prob-H 60%
Prob-M 05%
Prob-H 25%
Prob-M 05%
Prob-H 25%

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  AVERAGES | NOV. Solar Flux 155.3 | Sunspots 101.8 | Flare Max X1.6

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December 22, 2014 @ 03:00 UTC (UPDATED)
CME Impact / Geomagnetic Storm
Earth based Magnetometers reacted to an incoming coronal mass ejection around 19:15 UTC, initially first observed by the ACE spacecraft at 18:24 UTC. Although the solar wind increase to near 460 km/s is not all that impressive, characteristics of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) carried within it could still help enhance geomagnetic activity. The Bz component of the IMF is currently pointing south. Sky watchers at high latitudes should remain alert once it is dark outside. More details to follow if necessary.

UPDATE: Minor (G1) Geomagnetic Storming is now being observed at high latitudes. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) has been tilting sharply south for long durations. Visible aurora displays will likely make an appearance tonight from locations such as Alaska, Alberta, Michigan and Maine.

Visible Aurora via Alaska Aurora Cam

ALERT: Geomagnetic K-index of 5
Threshold Reached: 2014 Dec 22 0245 UTC
Synoptic Period: 0000-0300 UTC
Active Warning: Yes
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2014 Dec 21 1916 UTC
Deviation: 10 nT
Station: FRD

December 21, 2014 @ 16:50 UTC (UPDATED)
Geomagnetic Storm Watch
A coronal mass ejection (CME) generated by an M6.9 solar flare around region 2241 on December 18 is expected to possibly sweep past our planet on Sunday (Dec 21). A moderate (G2) geomagnetic storm watch is now in effect. Sky watchers at high latitudes should be alert for visible aurora during the next 24-48 hours. Click HERE for a coronagraph video of the CME.

UPDATE: Energetic protons measured by the ACE spacecraft continue to gradually creep higher, a sign that an expected coronal mass ejection is still approaching. You can monitor the latest solar wind conditions by clicking HERE.

December 21, 2014 @ 11:35 UTC
Solar Update
Good morning. Here is an updated look at the visible solar disk on Sunday. Solar activity during the past 24 hours declined to moderate levels. Region 2242 now located in the southwest quadrant was the most productive region during the past day. The strongest event during the past 24 hours was an M1.2 solar flare at 07:32 UTC (Dec 21). The active region will remain a threat for additional moderate to strong solar flares. The other sunspot of interest, region 2241, has been mostly stable while showing signs of decay within the trailing section of the group. Despite this, it will remain a threat for an isolated moderate to strong solar flare. New sunspot 2244 located in the northeast quadrant continues to gradually evolve and should be monitored. All other visible regions, including newly numbered sunspot 2245 are currently stable. No Earth directed coronal mass ejections were observed during the past day. Stay tuned to SolarHam.com for the latest spaceweather data and imagery.


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REPORTS AND FORECAST | 30 Day DSD | Data Warehouse


Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
Space Weather Prediction Center and the U.S. Air Force.
UPDATED 2014 December 22 0030 UTC

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels due to an M1/1n flare at
21/0732 UTC from Region 2242 (S18W57, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and a long
duration M1 flare at 21/1217 UTC from Region 2141 (S10W33,
Ehc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2242 contributed to the majority of the
C-class flaring as well. Both Regions 2241 and 2242 exhibited penumbral
decay within its intermediate and trailing areas. Moderate growth and
consolidation was observed in Region 2244 (S04E28, Dao/beta). This
region produced a C5 flare at 21/0455 UTC. New Regions 2245 (N08E60,
Cao/beta) and 2246 (N17E78, Hsx/alpha were numbered during the period.
The remaining regions were stable and quiet. No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (22-24 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

[Full Report and Forecasts]
[Report of Solar-Geophysical Activity]

NOAA SUNSPOT SUMMARY | SolarHam Sunspot Summary

A - Alpha (single polarity spot).
B - Beta (bipolar spot configuration).
G - Gamma (atypical mixture of polarities).
BG - Beta-Gamma (mixture of polarities in a dominantly bipolar configuration).
D - Delta (opposite polarity umbrae within single penumbra).
BD - Beta with a Delta configuration.
BGD - Beta-Gamma with a Delta configuration.

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